In the cryptocurrency market, large capital bets often reveal investors’ bold expectations for future price trends. At present, the Bitcoin call option on the Deribit platform with an upward strike price as high as 300,000 US dollars and expiring on June 26th has become the focus of the market. Theoretically speaking, to profit from this call option, the spot price of Bitcoin needs to soar by 216% by the end of June and break through the $300,000 mark.
As of now, the number of active contracts for this call option has exceeded 5,000, and the nominal outstanding contract value has reached 484 million US dollars. This makes it the second most popular product among the June expiring options on the Deribit platform, second only to the call option with an exercise price of $110,000. Deribit, as the world’s leading cryptocurrency options exchange, holds over 75% of the global options trading activities. On its platform, one option contract represents one Bitcoin. June 26th, as the quarterly expiration date, usually triggers active market trading and increased volatility. Traders take advantage of this juncture to adjust positions, lock in profits or speculate on future price trends.
Regarding the popularity of this call option, Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at cryptocurrency market maker GSR, believes that people’s enthusiasm for such investments is just like their fondness for buying lottery tickets. Judging from the bias of call options, there have always been investors who expect to hedge against hyperinflation or guard against black swan events through such positions. This type of deep “out-of-the-money call option” with an exercise price far exceeding the current market price, although it requires a significant increase in the price of the underlying asset to make a profit, its premium is relatively low. Once the market rises significantly, investors will obtain substantial returns, and thus it is regarded as a high-risk and high-return investment similar to lottery.
Looking back at previous bull market cycles, the Deribit platform has also witnessed a large number of deep out-of-the-money call options emerging. However, it is still relatively rare for it to become the second most popular contract among quarterly expiring options like this one. Some traders have analyzed that behind this large-scale bet, it might be due to investors’ optimism about the US regulatory policies becoming more friendly to the cryptocurrency market, as well as their low-cost speculative behavior influenced by the “Bitcoin strategic reserve” concept proposed by Trump. Previously, US Senator Cynthia Lummis expressed relief in her speech that Trump supported the “Bitcoin Act” she proposed. She believed that this act was the key to solving the US debt crisis of 36 trillion US dollars. Although the bill still has a long way to go before it becomes law, the signals it conveys have attracted the attention of traders.
Judging from the trading situation in April, according to the head of derivatives at Amberdata, there were a large number of sell orders for call options expiring in June with an exercise price of $300,000 at that time. This is a common “covered call” strategy. That is, while holding the spot Bitcoin, investors sell call options to collect the premium and increase additional profits. The sell order on April 23rd was speculated to be made by spot long positions to obtain profits. At that time, the selling price of each option was approximately $60, and the implied volatility reached 100%. This kind of operation of “selling high-strike options and collecting the premium” is a relatively popular profit strategy in both traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets.
At present, the price of Bitcoin is still far from $300,000. The popularity of this call option reflects the strong speculative atmosphere in the cryptocurrency market. It is not merely a simple financial bet; it also embodies investors’ expectations of policy changes, inflation concerns, and the interaction between politics and digital assets, becoming an important barometer of market sentiment in the second quarter of 2025.
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