The US Senate passed the “GENIUS” Stablecoin Uniform Standard Guarantee Act on May 20th. This bill aims to establish a unified federal standard for the issuance and operation of “payment-based stablecoins”, requiring that stablecoins must be reserved at a 1:1 ratio in US dollar cash or short-term US Treasury bonds, and maningly disclose audit reports.
The current total market capitalization of stablecoins worldwide is approximately 230 billion US dollars, and about 83% of stablecoins are pegged to US Treasuries/the US dollar. Relevant analysis suggests that stablecoin legislation may drive a sharp increase in the supply of stablecoins, thereby stimulating the demand for US Treasury bonds. For instance, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank predict that by the end of 2028, the size of stablecoin assets could grow from the current 230 billion US dollars to 2 trillion US dollars, which could generate a new demand of 1.6 trillion US dollars for short-term Treasury bills. Republican Senator Bill Hagerty even predicted that by 2030, stablecoin issuers would become the “world’s largest holders” of US Treasury bonds.
The Stablecoin bill provides a federal-level regulatory framework for US dollar stablecoins, enabling traditional banks to utilize existing deposit and loan channels to offer collateral and clearing services for stablecoin issuance. Coupled with the on-chain interoperability of decentralized finance protocols, it is expected to unleash significant capital momentum. Stablecoin issuers need to keep US Treasury bonds as reserves, which provides new incremental funds for US Treasuries and can stabilize the US Treasury bond market to a certain extent, alleviating market pressure.
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