Golden Finance reported that recently, Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy, expressed a different view on the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin in an interview with CNBC. He believes that this threat has been overly exaggerated. When the real threat approaches, the Bitcoin protocol can effectively deal with potential risks through software upgrades.
Saylor was straightforward: “The so-called threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is largely just a marketing gimmick for those who are trying to sell you the next quantum concept token.” He further explained that tech giants such as Google and Microsoft would not easily sell computers capable of cracking modern encryption technologies. There are deep-seated reasons behind this. Once such computers enter the market, the impact they bring will be disruptive. It will not only severely impact the businesses of Google and Microsoft themselves, because many of their services rely on existing encryption technologies to ensure data security and user privacy;
Moreover, for the US government and the banking system, it is an even greater disaster. Many key infrastructures of the US government, such as defense and intelligence systems, as well as online transactions and customer information storage in the banking system, all rely heavily on encryption technology to ensure secure operation. If encryption technology is easily cracked, it will lead to a series of serious consequences such as information leakage and fund theft, and the entire financial order and national security will fall into chaos.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently uses ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to ensure transaction security. Its security is based on the fact that the discrete logarithm problem is extremely difficult to solve for classical computers. However, the Shor algorithm of quantum computers can theoretically solve the discrete logarithm problem in a short time, thereby deducing the private key from the public key of Bitcoin, posing a potential threat to its security.
But Saylor’s view also has some basis. On the one hand, although quantum computing technology is developing rapidly, there are still many challenges before it can actually crack the Bitcoin encryption algorithm. To build a quantum computer capable of cracking the encryption of Bitcoin, major breakthroughs need to be made in multiple aspects such as the number of qubits, stability, and error correction capabilities. With the current technological progress, this cannot be achieved in the short term. On the other hand, the Bitcoin community has been closely following the development trends of quantum computing. When the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is truly imminent, with the open-source nature of the Bitcoin protocol, numerous developers around the world can collaborate and deal with it through software upgrades.
For example, the signature algorithm can be upgraded to an anti-quantum algorithm. Schemes like Lamport signature are already under research and discussion. Meanwhile, by taking advantage of the flexibility of Taproot/Schnorr, the foundation for introducing a new signature algorithm is laid to achieve “upgrading compatible address formats” and reduce migration resistance.
At the market level, BlackRock previously mentioned in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) document that quantum computing might “disrupt” the Bitcoin encryption system and trigger fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price. But Saylor believes that this market panic sentiment has been overly exaggerated. He pointed out that investors should not be swayed by such short-term panic remarks.
If people hesitate when investing merely because they are worried about quantum computing, a threat that has not yet become a reality, they will miss many investment opportunities. Just as investors would not easily sell their stocks of Amazon, Facebook or Google out of concern for the risks that quantum computing might bring. In his view, Bitcoin, as a digital asset with unique value, has strong resilience in its underlying technology and community consensus, and should not be overly influenced by the potential threat of quantum computing.
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