Golden Finance reports that in the current context of continuous fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan expressed his unique insights on the market trend in an interview on Wednesday. He pointed out that the analysis company has observed a strong expectation of Bitcoin’s next “all-time high” prevailing on social media. However, the operating logic of the market often contradicts the common expectations of retail investors. This phenomenon usually indicates that the current market is not fully prepared to welcome the next bull market.
Quinlivan further explained that due to the lack of sufficient skeptical voices in the current market, historical highs often do not emerge rapidly following the current market situation. However, given that Bitcoin has approached its historical peak several times, market sentiment has gradually shifted to a relatively low level. This shift in sentiment could potentially serve as a driving force for Bitcoin to break through its current high. As of the time of this article’s publication, according to CoinMarketCap, the trading price of Bitcoin is $109,679, only 2.1% away from its historical high of $111,970 set on May 22. Such a close price range has made the market particularly concerned about its future trend.
Looking ahead, Quinlivan is cautious about Bitcoin’s performance in the third quarter, believing that Bitcoin may perform weakly during this period. From the perspective of historical data and market cycles, the price trend of Bitcoin shows certain seasonal and cyclical characteristics. In the past multiple cycles, the third quarter has often been accompanied by a decline in market activity and a phased adjustment in investor sentiment. For instance, in the third quarter of 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell into a prolonged slump for several months due to factors such as the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment and the continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The price dropped from nearly $50,000 at the beginning of the quarter to around $20,000. This year, although the market environment is different, there are still many potential risk factors. On the one hand, the pace of global macroeconomic recovery is slow. Although inflationary pressure has eased somewhat, there is still uncertainty. This may lead investors to be more cautious in allocating risky assets. As a typical risky asset, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin may be restrained. On the other hand, the regulatory policies for the cryptocurrency market are still in a stage of continuous improvement and change on a global scale. Any new regulatory measures introduced may trigger sharp market fluctuations. Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has intensified its review of some cryptocurrency projects, which undoubtedly brings more uncertainty to market participants and affects their investment decisions.
Meanwhile, Quinlivan suggests that investors keep a close eye on the “catch-up” opportunities of Ethereum. Ethereum, as the core platform in the blockchain field, supports a rich ecosystem including decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTS), and smart contracts. In early 2025, Ethereum is undergoing a series of technological upgrades. For instance, the Pectra upgrade is expected to be implemented in the first quarter, marking another major update following the merge in 2022 and the Cancun upgrade in 2024. This upgrade will focus on optimizing the Layer 2 solution, significantly improving network performance and effectively reducing transaction costs. These improvements are expected to attract more developers and users to the Ethereum ecosystem, thereby significantly boosting the demand for ETH.
Judging from market performance, Ethereum has already demonstrated certain potential for growth in 2025. Since the beginning of the year, the price of Ethereum has risen from $2,281 to the current $3,341, an increase of 46%. Although the overall trend has fluctuated greatly, the upward trend is obvious. If Ethereum progresses smoothly in terms of technological upgrades, institutional investors’ interest in its smart contracts and DeFi ecosystem may also increase further. Especially in the context where the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the United States may become more favorable due to political changes, Ethereum is expected to launch a product similar to a Bitcoin spot ETF in 2025. Once realized, this will introduce a large amount of institutional funds to Ethereum, pushing its price up further. For instance, after the first spot Bitcoin ETF was approved by the US SEC in early 2024, Bitcoin witnessed a strong rally, with its price once breaking through $73,000. If Ethereum can replicate this model, its price is expected to increase by a greater margin on the current basis.
In terms of competition, although high-performance Layer 1 blockchains such as Solana and Binance Smart Chain pose certain competitive threats to Ethereum, Ethereum still holds significant advantages in terms of the number of users, developer resources, and market recognition, thanks to its large and mature ecosystem. With the gradual improvement of the Layer 2 solution, Ethereum is expected to overcome the current bottlenecks of high transaction fees and slow speed, and consolidate its leading position in the blockchain field. Therefore, in the third quarter when Bitcoin may perform weakly, Ethereum, with its technological upgrades, potential ETF approvals, and ecosystem advantages, has a significant opportunity to “catch up” or even surpass Bitcoin’s gains, and is worthy of investors’ close attention.
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