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Bitcoin in 2024: Supply Cap, Scarcity and Beyond

gongshang13 by gongshang13
12/25/2024
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On Christmas Eve 2024, the number of mined bitcoins crossed the 19.8 million mark, leaving less than 1.2 million until the total supply of 21 million is exhausted.

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Bitcoin has a supply cap of 21 million units. After the 2024 halving, around 450 bitcoins are mined daily. Bitcoin emission drops by 50% roughly every four years when another 210,000 blocks are mined, a process known as “halving.” By 2140, the mining reward will drop below a Satoshi (the smallest fraction of Bitcoin), effectively ending new bitcoin emissions. Even then, miners will receive transaction fees from senders as rewards, which already make up a significant part of their earnings.

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Bitcoin is considered a deflationary asset, unlike fiat currencies like the dollar which can be printed at will. As the number of bitcoins in circulation decreases over time (due to some being “stuck” in inactive wallets), the value of each unit is believed to rise. While scarcity isn’t the sole value driver, it does push buyers to bid higher for each bitcoin, contributing to price increases during halvings.

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A BlackRock educational video in December 2024 sparked online debate about removing Bitcoin’s supply cap. While it’s technically possible through hard forking, opponents argue it would transform Bitcoin. If the supply cap is changed, Bitcoin would likely hard fork, and the original version with a fixed supply would likely retain its value.

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The actual number of bitcoins in circulation will never reach 21 million. It’s believed Satoshi Nakamoto holds a large number of early – mined bitcoins that have been dormant since 2009. There are also “provably” unspendable coins, and various estimates suggest 3 to nearly 8 million bitcoins are lost forever due to reasons like losing private keys or sending coins to invalid addresses. The amount of lost bitcoins is expected to keep growing.

“Virgin bitcoins” are those with a clean transaction history, never having been used. They are extremely rare and can only be obtained directly from miners via P2P services. Once a bitcoin is part of an unspent transaction output or sent in parts, it loses its “virgin” status. Institutional investors are willing to pay extra for virgin bitcoins to avoid potential risks associated with bitcoins involved in criminal transactions. However, some, like Nic Carter, question the existence of virgin bitcoins and the importance of a clean transaction history.

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