As US President Donald Trump’s second term in office is approaching its 100th day, poll data has drawn attention. On April 27 local time, the latest public opinion poll jointly released by ABC, The Washington Post and Ipsos Group showed that Trump’s approval rating in his first 100 days in office was only 39%, a decrease of 6 percentage points from February this year, setting the lowest record among all US presidents in the past 80 years. This data highlights the social divisions caused by its policies and also adds uncertainty to the subsequent political direction.
Meanwhile, the meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky became a geopolitical focus. After the talks, Trump said that the progress was good, but he was tough on Russia, saying that he was “disappointed with Putin” and hoped that the two sides would stop the conflict and reach an agreement. The framework of the current agreement has been initially determined. Zelensky’s side has sent out signals of seeking reconciliation, but the situation still needs to be continuously observed.
Crypto Market Volatility: BTC Decline and Frequent project Dynamics
The cryptocurrency market has recently shown a volatile trend. As of the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped back to $93,527.70, with an intraday decline of 1.4%. Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 2.8% to $1,784.33. Mainstream currencies such as BNB, SOL, and DOGE generally weakened, with only XPR rising by 2.0% against the trend to $2.30. Market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors, including both policy-level uncertainties and closely related to the dynamics of the projects themselves.
Ethereum Ecosystem: Fee Structure Reform and Security Incidents
The Ethereum community is promoting key reforms. Developers Kevin Owocki and Devansh Mehta proposed a dynamic fee structure for the application layer on April 27th. They suggested using the square root function to calculate the fee ratio – a higher proportion would be charged when the pool size was less than 10 million US dollars, and the upper limit of the fee would be locked at 1% after exceeding this threshold. This move aims to balance developers’ income with users’ costs and address the competitive pressure from other public chains, which has sparked widespread discussions in the community.
In terms of security, the Ethereum lending protocol Term Finance suffered a loss of 1.6 million US dollars of ETH due to incorrect oracle configuration. Although more than 1 million US dollars were recovered through negotiation, the remaining deficit was borne by the protocol vault. However, the incident exposed the potential risk of on-chain protocols’ reliance on oracles. On the same day, the DeFi protocol Impermax Finance was attacked by flash loans, losing more than 150,000 US dollars, once again sounding the alarm for the security of smart contracts.
Changes in market structure: Institutional entry and retail investor exit
On-chain data reveals the structural transformation of the market. Since late January, nearly 100 new entities holding over 1,000 BTC have joined the Bitcoin network, indicating that institutional investors are accelerating their layout. Hunter Horsley, the CEO of Bitwise, pointed out that although the price of Bitcoin is close to $94,000, the search volume for “Bitcoin” on Google is at a historical low, indicating that the current dominant force in the market has shifted from retail investors to institutions, enterprises and national entities, and the investor structure shows a diversified trend.
Project Dynamics and Controversial Events
The founder of the Trump family’s crypto project WLFI met with Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) in ABU Dhabi. The two sides discussed the global popularization of cryptocurrencies and the formulation of industry standards. CZ had previously warned that traditional media might “fabricate negative reports” about this, emphasizing the importance of focusing on technological construction.
The token market witnessed a sharp fluctuation: ALPACA plunged by over 50% within one hour after Binance announced its delisting on May 2nd, with its market value shrinking to 27 million US dollars. In the early stage of the announcement, the token briefly rose by 800%, highlighting the high risk of small-cap tokens. The 1inch team investment fund was reported to have sold some WBTC and then increased its holdings of 1INCH by 5.498 million at a price of $0.199, which has sparked market speculation about the project’s operation strategy.
CZ’s remarks have once again sparked heated discussions. During a live stream in Turkey, he claimed that “Satoshi Nakamoto is an artificial intelligence from the future,” which was partially interpreted as a joke, but it has reignited the ongoing debate over the identity of the founder of Bitcoin.
Global Policy Trends: Expectations of Central Bank Interest Rate Cuts and Volatility in the US Treasury Bond Market
Monetary Policy: The paths of central banks in Europe and the United States are differentiated
The European Central Bank sent out a signal of interest rate cuts. Sources said that due to the continuous decline in inflation and the potential impact of US tariffs on the economy, most of the governing committees of the European Central Bank tend to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the eighth consecutive time at the June 4th interest rate meeting, and will adjust their decisions based on subsequent data. This move is aimed at stimulating the economy of the Eurozone, but it may intensify the divergence with the policies of the Federal Reserve.
For the Federal Reserve, CME’s “FedWatch” shows that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 90.3%, and the expected probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in June is 58.6%. Market expectations for the start of a easing cycle are gradually heating up.
US Bond Market: “New World Order” raises concerns
The uncertainty of Trump’s policies has had an impact on the US Treasury bond market. The “sell-off of US Treasuries” in April led to a decline in the appeal of long-term Treasury bonds. Investors demanded higher yields to compensate for risks, and institutions like BlackRock’s willingness to allocate to long-term US Treasuries weakened. Analysis points out that the policy uncertainties brought about by Trump’s 100th day in office are forcing the market to reevaluate the traditional positioning of US Treasuries as “safe-haven assets”, and long-term Treasury bond yields may enter a volatile range.
The US Treasury Secretary responds to the market confidence crisis
In response to the double decline of the US stock market and US bonds, US Treasury Secretary Basent emphasized in an interview that the short-term market fluctuations are “statistical noise”. The US is strengthening the US dollar and economic fundamentals through policies. In the long term, US bonds remain the safest asset globally. His remarks were aimed at easing market anxiety, but investors’ concerns about fiscal deficits and debt sustainability have not yet completely subsided.
Conclusion: Market Challenges under the Interaction of Politics and Economy
At present, the interactivity between the cryptocurrency market and the global political and economic environment has significantly increased: Trump’s low approval rating may exacerbate policy wavering, the divergence in monetary policies among central banks in Europe and the United States affects capital flows, and the technical risks and market manipulation incidents of on-chain projects test the maturity of the industry. Investors need to closely monitor the shift in macro policies and the fundamentals of projects, and prudently assess risks and opportunities amid fluctuations.
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