While the global financial market is focusing on the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates and the collapse of the cryptocurrency market, the situation in the Middle East has once again drawn widespread attention. Golden Finance, citing information disclosed by two US officials, said that the possibility of the sixth round of US-Iran talks originally scheduled to be held in Oman this weekend is now sharply decreasing.
Since April this year, under the active mediation of Oman, the United States and Iran have held five rounds of indirect talks. However, on many core issues, the two sides still have irreconcilable differences. The Iranian side insists on reserving the right to carry out moderate uranium enrichment activities on its own soil, considering this as part of its right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and firmly rejects the “zero enrichment” demand proposed by the US side. The United States, on the other hand, contends that Iran should completely halt uranium enrichment activities at all levels, even demanding complete denuclearization of Iran and sealing up excess enriched uranium abroad.
In his recent remarks, US President Trump’s confidence in reaching an agreement between the United States and Iran has significantly weakened. In a media podcast interview aired on the 11th, Trump said straightforwardly, “They (Iran) seem to be delaying. Compared with the past few months, my confidence in reaching an agreement has greatly decreased,” and emphasized, “If no agreement is reached, they cannot possess nuclear weapons either.” Meanwhile, the Iranian side has also sent out complex signals. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghzi posted on social media on the 11th that Iran and the United States have the hope of reaching an agreement, and it is even “possible to reach one quickly”, but the prerequisite is that Iran can continue its uranium enrichment program under the full supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United States ends sanctions against Iran. On the same day, Iranian Defense Minister Nasirzad firmly stated that if the US-Iran negotiations fail, Iran will be “forced into a conflict” and will strike “all US military bases” within the region.
The US State Department announced on the 11th that it has asked non-essential personnel of the US Embassy in Iraq and their families to evacuate the country. CNN, citing informed sources, said that the US State Department is also preparing to order non-essential personnel of the US embassies in Bahrain and Kuwait to evacuate. The US Department of Defense also said on the same day that Defense Secretary John Hegerseth approved the voluntary withdrawal of the families of US troops stationed in the Middle East. Although the United States claimed that the evacuation was due to the “potentially dangerous” situation in the Middle East, many analysts believe that this move is closely related to the tense relations between the United States and Iran and concerns that Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Previously, sources said that Israel has informed the US that it is fully prepared to take action against Iran. Once Israel takes military action against Iran, it is highly likely to trigger strong retaliation from Iran, leading to a further deterioration of the regional situation. Under such circumstances, the prospects for the US-Iran negotiations have become increasingly dim, and the uncertainty of the regional situation has significantly increased. The international community is closely monitoring the subsequent actions of both the US and Iran as well as the trend of the situation in the Middle East.
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