Against the backdrop of the cryptocurrency market experiencing sharp fluctuations and a total online margin call of 225 million US dollars in the past hour, the monetary policy expectations of the Federal Reserve have also drawn much market attention. Golden Finance, citing data from CME’s “FedWatch”, shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is as high as 97.6%, while the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is only 2.4%.
From a longer-term perspective, regarding the interest rate trend in July, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 19.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is as low as 0.4%. Such probability data reflect that the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the current interest rate level in the short term.
The interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve has a profound impact on the global financial market. The adjustment of its monetary policy not only directly affects the trend of the US dollar but also triggers a chain reaction in areas such as the capital market, foreign exchange market, and commodity market. Previously, US President Trump convened a cabinet meeting, and all sectors speculated that he might adjust economic policies. Meanwhile, the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve will also be intertwined with macroeconomic policies, jointly influencing the development direction of the US and even the global economy. Market participants are closely monitoring the subsequent policy trends of the Federal Reserve in order to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner and respond to possible market changes.
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