Dogecoin (DOGE) has been facing a mild pullback recently, as broader market sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and a lack of significant Dogecoin-specific catalysts. However, analysts are eyeing potential long-term growth, particularly if Dogecoin were to capture a portion of the U.S. M1 money supply.
As of May 6, 2025, Dogecoin’s price has struggled to maintain momentum, dipping below $0.17 due to broader market weakness. DOGE has failed to break through the key resistance level of $0.18, with bearish technical indicators suggesting a continued downtrend. In comparison to Bitcoin, Dogecoin has also seen a decline, trading at 0.051781 BTC, down 1.4% daily.
However, some analysts argue that Dogecoin could see a significant price surge if it were to match 30% of the U.S. M1 supply, which currently stands at approximately $18.5 trillion. The U.S. M1 money supply, which includes the most liquid forms of money like physical currency and demand deposits, has grown substantially, particularly since the pandemic. This expansion has historically benefitted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin.
If Dogecoin were to capture 30% of the U.S. M1 supply—around $6.1 trillion—it would theoretically push the price of DOGE to approximately $35.60 per coin. This would represent an extraordinary 20,700% gain from its current price of $0.1712. While this scenario is speculative and highly unlikely, it shows the potential for immense price appreciation in the event of widespread adoption and institutional interest, especially if Dogecoin ETFs are approved by the U.S. SEC.
Even in a more conservative scenario, where Dogecoin captures just 5% of the M1 supply, the price could rise to about $5.93 per coin, which would still represent a massive increase from its all-time high of $0.73 during the 2021 bull run.
Despite these possibilities, achieving such high price levels would require substantial catalysts, including mainstream adoption, significant institutional demand, and approval for Dogecoin ETFs. Until then, the short-term outlook remains cautious, with technical indicators suggesting that DOGE could continue to face downward pressure. Support levels around $0.1640 and $0.1532 are crucial, and a sustained break above $0.1750 would be needed to reintroduce a bullish scenario in the short term.
In conclusion, while a significant surge in Dogecoin’s price remains a distant and speculative possibility, the growth in the U.S. M1 supply could act as a potential driver for future rallies, especially if conditions for crypto adoption continue to improve.
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