Under the close scrutiny of the global financial market, the price of Bitcoin has risen strongly recently. On May 9th, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) successfully broke through the $100,000 mark, reaching a peak of $104,000. With a 24-hour increase of over 6%, its market value surpassed $2.054 trillion, making it the fifth largest asset globally. This significant rally has sparked heated discussions in the market. Whether a bull market has arrived has become a key topic, and Standard Chartered Bank’s view has drawn much attention. It believes that Bitcoin may break through $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025, and this prediction may seem overly conservative at present.
The price of Bitcoin has soared and market sentiment is high
Since the beginning of 2025, the price of Bitcoin has been strong, especially showing an accelerating upward trend recently. Since February, Bitcoin has been gathering strength. This time, breaking through the $100,000 mark can be regarded as a crucial juncture, which has greatly boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of market data, not only has the price of Bitcoin itself risen significantly, but various related indicators also reflect the heat of the market. For instance, Ethereum (ETH), as the second-largest cryptocurrency, also followed the upward trend of Bitcoin, with a single-day increase of 22%, breaking through $2,200. In terms of capital flow, the funds of Bitcoin spot ETFs have been continuously flowing back. On May 4th, the total net inflow exceeded 40.2 billion US dollars, approaching the historical high, demonstrating the strong interest of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, the number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has significantly increased, indicating that large funds are actively laying out to increase their holdings of Bitcoin.
Multiple favorable factors have driven the rise of Bitcoin
The trade agreement eased market concerns
The news that the United States and the United Kingdom reached a tariff agreement was like a shot in the arm injected into the market. Previously, trade frictions have always been a shadow hanging over the global economy, and investors have been highly worried. The conclusion of this agreement effectively alleviated the market’s panic over the trade war, and risky assets were generally boosted. As a venture capital asset that has gradually gained recognition in recent years, Bitcoin naturally benefited from it. The reduction in market uncertainty has led to an increase in investors’ risk appetite, and some funds have flowed into the Bitcoin market in search of higher returns.
Policy signals boost market confidence
The Trump administration has recently sent out positive signals in support of cryptocurrencies. Some states, such as New Hampshire, have passed the Bitcoin Reserve bill. This series of measures has enabled market participants to witness a positive shift at the regulatory level and enhanced their confidence in the cryptocurrency market. In the past, the uncertainty of regulation often restricted the development of the cryptocurrency market. Now, the change in the government’s attitude has injected strong impetus into the market, attracting more funds to enter.
The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates affects the flow of funds
Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market expectations for a rate cut in September continued to heat up. In traditional financial markets, interest rates are closely related to asset prices. When the market expects interest rate cuts, funds, in pursuit of better returns, tend to flow out from low-yield fixed-income assets and instead into risky asset areas. Bitcoin, as an asset with the characteristics of high risk and high return, has become one of the potential directions for capital inflow. This shift in the flow of funds has played a role in driving up the price of Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered Bank: The $120,000 target may be relatively conservative
Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital assets at Standard Chartered Bank, has been keeping an eye on the dynamics of the Bitcoin market. Long before, he predicted that Bitcoin would reach $120,000 in the second quarter of this year, citing reasons such as institutional funds’ “strategic” withdrawal of some US assets and high-net-worth investors’ continuous increase in Bitcoin holdings. However, as the price of Bitcoin rapidly broke through $100,000, Kendrick shared his views with clients via email on May 9th, stating that his previous target of $120,000 for Bitcoin in the second quarter might have been too conservative. For this, he apologized to his clients. He believes that the dominant narrative of Bitcoin has changed at present, shifting from its initial correlation with risky assets to being dominated by capital flows. At present, various types of funds are flowing into the Bitcoin market in multiple forms, which further opens up the upside potential of Bitcoin.
Not only that, Kendrick also pointed out that the US spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted an inflow of 5.3 billion US dollars in the past three weeks, a figure that directly reflects that more institutional funds are rushing in. The influx of a large amount of capital has provided a solid financial foundation for the price increase of Bitcoin and also convinced him that Bitcoin still has greater potential for growth in the future.
The subsequent market trend: Opportunities and challenges coexist
From a technical analysis perspective, since Bitcoin began its rebound in 2023, its overall trend has been steadily upward. Unlike the rapid yet highly volatile bull market in 2021, this round of rise is more orderly and gradual in rhythm. The price of BTC has been continuously building higher highs and lows, firmly standing above the upward trend line. The technical aspect has comprehensively strengthened, indicating that it is expected to continue to challenge new historical highs. The weekly MACD is about to form a bullish cross, and the RSI, after rebounding from a low close to 40 and approaching the overbought zone, has a considerable potential to form a double bottom pattern. All these technical indicators have sent out positive signals.
However, the market is not all smooth sailing. Bitcoin needs to pay attention to the resistance level of $105,000 in the short term. If it can successfully break through, it is highly likely to start a new round of strong upward trend. Conversely, if it fails to break through and then pulls back, $95,000 will become a key support level. If the price breaks below this support level, it may trigger a further decline. Furthermore, despite the current high market sentiment, the cryptocurrency market has always been highly volatile. Within the past 24 hours, nearly 200,000 investors were wiped out, with short positions amounting to over 800 million US dollars, demonstrating the intense market volatility. In the future, the Bitcoin market will still face many challenges such as changes in regulatory policies, fluctuations in the macroeconomic situation, and technical security risks.
Conclusion
Overall, the significant increase in the price of Bitcoin has indeed intensified the bull market atmosphere. Standard Chartered Bank’s optimistic forecast for the price of Bitcoin also reflects the views of some market professionals. However, the complexity and uncertainty of the market determine that the subsequent trend of Bitcoin is still full of uncertainties. Investors need to remain cautious, closely monitor market dynamics, and reasonably adjust their investment strategies.
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