New York – Bernstein, a renowned international financial services company, recently released a research report on cryptocurrencies, predicting that the price of Bitcoin may break through the $200,000 mark by the end of 2025. This optimistic expectation has sparked intense discussions in the market about a new upward cycle of cryptocurrencies
The core logic: The superposition of institutionalization and the halving cycle
Bernstein analyst [name] pointed out in the report that the core driving force behind Bitcoin’s price breaking through its historical high (the current record was set at $109,000 in January 2025) comes from two major factors:
Institutional investors are entering the market on a large scale: The report shows that among the institutions with global asset management scale exceeding 1 billion US dollars in the first quarter of 2025, 28% have allocated Bitcoin through compliant channels such as ETFs and trusts, an increase of 17 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The holding data of giants such as BlackRock and Bridgewater show that the average cost for institutions to build positions is approximately $85,000 per share, forming a strong support range.
Halving cycle effect in 2025: According to the Bitcoin protocol, the fourth block reward halving will occur in April 2025 (from 6.25 to 3.125). Historical data shows that within 12 months after the first three halvings, the average price of Bitcoin rose by 320%, 210% and 180% respectively. The Bernstein model predicts that this halving will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand. It is expected that the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin will drop below 0.8% in 2025, approaching the 0.5% level of gold.
Market reaction: The battle between bulls and bears intensifies
After the report was released, the price of Bitcoin rose sharply to $108,000 in a short period of time, reaching a new high in nearly three months. Data from the cryptocurrency derivatives platform [name] shows that the trading volume of call options with an strike price of $200,000 soared by 450% within 24 hours, and the outstanding contract amount reached $320 million.
However, the director of macro strategy at the hedge fund [institution name] [Name] is cautious: “The current Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL) has risen to 65%, approaching the peak level of the 2022 bear market.” If the US stock market experiences a pullback or the SEC strengthens its supervision, it may trigger a liquidity crisis.
The redefinition of Bitcoin’s “digital gold” attribute
Bernstein particularly emphasized that Bitcoin is transforming from a “speculative asset” to a “digital reserve asset”. The report conducts a quantitative analysis of the key indicators of Bitcoin and gold
Indicators: Bitcoin (2025) Gold (2025)
Market capitalization: 2.1 trillion US dollars – 12 trillion US dollars
The annual trading volume is between 85 trillion and 25 trillion US dollars
Institutional holdings account for 18% to 25%
The carbon footprint intensity is 350 kilograms per piece and 0.3 kilograms per ounce
Analysts pointed out: “Although the energy consumption issue of Bitcoin remains controversial, its global liquidity and resistance to censorship have surpassed that of gold.” If the proportion of institutional holdings reaches the current level of gold (25%) by 2030, the market value of Bitcoin will exceed 3 trillion US dollars, corresponding to a unit price of approximately 150,000 US dollars.
Risk Warning and Industry Impact
The report simultaneously lists three major risk factors:
Sudden changes in regulatory policies: The United States or the European Union may introduce regulations prohibiting cryptocurrency trading (with a probability of about 15%).
Technical security vulnerabilities: Extreme events such as 51% computing power attacks may trigger trust crises;
Macroeconomic recession: A global GDP growth rate lower than 1.5% will lead to a general decline in risky assets.
If the $200,000 target is achieved, Bernstein predicts that it will drive the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies to exceed $5 trillion, with the market capitalization of mainstream currencies such as Ether and Ripple expected to increase by 120% and 80% respectively.
Background link: Bernstein accurately predicted in 2023 that the price of Bitcoin would break through $50,000. His research model has long focused on the intersection of macroeconomics and cryptocurrencies. This prediction is regarded as another significant endorsement by traditional financial institutions for the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies.
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