Digital asset management firm Strategy adopted a counter-trend positioning strategy during the market fluctuations in May. When the price of Bitcoin dropped to the $103,000 range, it spent $75 million to complete a new round of purchases. This move is regarded as a reflection of institutions’ confidence in the long-term value of cryptocurrencies. Despite short-term price pressure, strategic investors are still taking advantage of the pullback to increase their holdings.
Buy at a low price: $75 million bets on “digital gold”
Data from the blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence shows that Strategy completed the purchase through multiple over-the-counter (OTC) channels on May 29th, with an average transaction price of approximately $104,200 and a cumulative increase of 719 Bitcoins. This transaction coincided with Bitcoin’s second fall below the key support level of $105,000 within the month, a pullback of approximately 12.7% from the April high of $118,000. The market fear index (VIX) once rose to 45, reaching a new high since the first quarter of 2025.
Michael Sonnenschein, the chief investment officer of Strategy, said in a statement: “Short-term price fluctuations create a window for long-term allocation, and the attribute of Bitcoin as an inflation-resilient asset becomes increasingly prominent amid macroeconomic uncertainties.” The company’s holding strategy focuses on “asymmetric risk-return”. Previously, it completed three rounds of purchases totaling 120 million US dollars in the 60,000 US dollar range of Bitcoin in 2024. Currently, its total holdings have reached 2,345, with a market value exceeding 240 million US dollars.
Institutional trends: Increasing holdings against the market trend and market sentiment divergence
This increase in holdings contrasts with the fund flow data of the same period: CoinShares’ report shows that in the first three weeks of May, the net outflow of cryptocurrency funds reached 430 million US dollars, among which Bitcoin funds accounted for 78%, reflecting the concerns of retail investors about a short-term correction. However, institutional behavior has shown differentiation – apart from Strategy, the premium rate of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) narrowed from -18% to -12% during the same period, suggesting that professional investors are accumulating positions through premium and discount arbitrage.
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has formed strong support in the range of $103,000 to $105,000. This area is the historically dense trading zone before the breakthrough in March 2025, with a cumulative trading volume exceeding 1.2 million BTC. Analyst Lily Wang pointed out: “The buying behavior of institutions at key support levels may trigger algorithmic trading followings, forming a ‘price anchoring effect’, which helps stabilize market sentiment.”
Macro background: Inflation expectations and regulatory game
The operational background of Strategy is the rising expectation of a shift in monetary policies of major global central banks. The CPI data of the United States rose by 3.2% year-on-year in May. Core inflation has declined for three consecutive months. However, Michelle Bowman, a governor of the Federal Reserve, still emphasized that “the battle against inflation is not over”, and market expectations for a rate cut in June cooled to 35%. Under this macro environment, the value storage attribute of Bitcoin as “digital gold” has once again been mentioned by institutions.
Meanwhile, uncertainties at the regulatory level still exist. The approval process of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for spot Bitcoin ETFs has stalled, while the EU’s Crypto Asset Markets Regulation (MiCA) is set to come into effect in July 2025. The differences in compliance frameworks may lead to the flow of funds between regions. Strategy warned of risks in regulatory filings: “If major economies introduce stricter restrictions on cryptocurrency assets, it may affect the liquidity and valuation of holdings.”
Outlook for the future: Short-term Volatility and long-term Narrative
Regarding the timing of this increase in positions, Dan Heaton, an analyst at the cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken, believes: “The multiple tests of the $100,000 psychological threshold have strengthened the market’s consensus on the ‘new bottom’. Institutions building positions in this range not only avoid the high risk of chasing but also position themselves in the window period before the halving cycle.” Based on historical cycles, the next Bitcoin block reward halving is expected to occur in March 2026. Historical data shows that there is usually a wave of institutional purchases in the 12 months before the halving.
The market has a clear divergence of opinions on the subsequent price trend: Bears believe that if Bitcoin breaks through the support level of $103,000, it may test the Fibonacci retracement level of $97,000. Bulls, however, pointed out that the $75 million institutional buy orders have formed a “liquidity moat”, and a 2022-style crash is unlikely to occur in the short term. As of June 1st, the price of Bitcoin rebounded to $106,000, with a 24-hour trading volume of $28 billion, indicating that the battle between bulls and bears is still ongoing.
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