Recently, an analysis by Jon Ma, the CEO of Artemis, has sparked discussions about the potential market value of Tether. The analysis suggests that if Tether were to go public, its valuation could reach $515 billion. This figure would place Tether among the world’s largest corporations by market capitalization, ahead of well – known companies such as Costco and Coca – Cola.
Jon Ma’s analysis makes several key comparisons and assumptions to arrive at this valuation. The issuer of USDC, Circle, recently went public with a market capitalization of $30 billion. Ma’s financial model projects that Circle’s EBITDA for 2025 will reach $410 billion, which is equivalent to an EBITDA multiple of 69.3. Tether reported a net profit of $13 billion in 2024. Among them, $7 billion came from treasuries and repos, and $5 billion came from unrealized gains on bitcoin and gold holdings. The latter was not included in the EBITDA calculation.
Jon Ma’s projection assumes that Tether will increase its USDT supply by $50 – $60 billion in 2025, resulting in an average supply of $170 billion. With an average federal funds rate of 4.2%, this would imply a projected EBITDA of approximately $7.4 billion for 2025. By applying Circle’s current 69.3 – times EBITDA multiple to Tether’s projected EBITDA, the analysis arrives at $515 billion. However, Ma also points out that using Circle’s current EBITDA multiple is a strong assumption and may not be sustainable, highlighting the speculative nature of the calculation.
Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has become a pillar of the crypto – currency ecosystem. USDT is widely used for trading, remittances, and as a stable store of value, and its supply is growing steadily with the increasing demand for stablecoins. Under the leadership of CEO Paolo Ardoino, Tether has maintained its position as the largest stablecoin by market capitalization and the third – largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin and Ethereum.
Although the $515 – billion valuation is a theoretical exercise based on current market multiples, it highlights Tether’s significant influence in the crypto – currency and traditional finance sectors. However, whether Tether will become one of the next IPO success stories in the crypto – currency field remains to be seen.
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