On June 11th, CryptoQuant analyst Dan released a chart analysis stating that although the price of Bitcoin has approached its historical peak, no obvious signs of profit-taking by whales have been observed from the on-chain data. This phenomenon indicates that the whales do not seem to be in a hurry to cash out and exit at the current price level. Perhaps they are waiting for the price of Bitcoin to rise further, or they plan to take action only after the market shows significant overheating and a clear bubble has formed.
Bitcoin has performed strongly recently, successfully breaking through the $110,000 mark in May 2025 and once approaching its historical high. Its market capitalization has also increased significantly, exceeding 2.18 trillion US dollars, which has strongly driven the rise of the entire cryptocurrency market, with the total market capitalization approaching 3.43 trillion US dollars. A number of factors have driven up the price of Bitcoin. The surging growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs is a key factor. Since the price of Bitcoin hit a low of $74,500 in April, it has rebounded by 47%. In addition, the continuous strengthening of the US stock market, the signal of easing tariffs released by Trump, and the inflow of stablecoin funds have all contributed to the rise in the price of Bitcoin. The increase in holdings by enterprises and the return of ETF funds have also significantly enhanced market momentum. Bernstein’s analysis shows that the proportion of holdings by enterprises and institutional investors is gradually rising, indicating optimism about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. It is expected that the price of Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
As the price of Bitcoin surges, the movements of the whales have drawn much attention. Whales usually refer to individual or institutional investors who hold a large amount of Bitcoin, and their trading activities often have a significant impact on market prices. In previous market cycles, when the price of Bitcoin rose sharply and approached a phase high, the whales often chose to take profits and sell a large amount of Bitcoin, triggering a market price correction. However, the situation is different this time. Data from CryptoQuant shows that whales holding 100 to 1,000, 1,000 to 10,000, and over 10,000 BTC have not engaged in large-scale selling within the current price range. For instance, when the election rally kicked off in November and December 2024, over 10,000 BTC super whales began to gradually reduce their holdings. However, as the Bitcoin price continues to reach new highs in 2025, these super whales remain on the sidelines, and some are even continuing to increase their holdings.
From the perspective of achieving the profit margin indicator, it can also confirm the phenomenon that the giant whale has not yet made large-scale profits. The realized profit margin measures the rate at which the investor group exits the market in a profitable state. A high value of this indicator usually indicates that the market is approaching its peak and participants are selling off assets to make profits. However, compared with the previous cycle, the realized profit margins of the current various Bitcoin whale groups (holding 10-100, 100-1000 and 1000-10000 BTC) are significantly lower. This means that as influential market entities, the Bitcoin giants believe that Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of this cycle and they still have confidence in further price increases.
In addition, the recent outflow of a large amount of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges also reflects the attitude of the “whales” from the side. Renowned cryptocurrency expert Ali Martinez pointed out that over the past week, more than 40,000 BTC (worth approximately 3.92 billion US dollars) has been transferred from exchanges to uncustodied wallets. The transfer of assets to non-custodian wallets usually indicates an increase in investor confidence, making them more inclined to hold for the long term rather than pursue short-term quick returns. The Bitcoins that have flowed out of the exchanges are highly likely to be acquired by the whales, further consolidating their long-term holdings.
For the future trend of Bitcoin’s price, if the whale continues to maintain its current non-profit-taking posture, the market selling pressure will remain at a low level, providing support for the further upward movement of Bitcoin’s price. Especially against the backdrop of the current market supply and demand relationship showing a “supply crunch”, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has been continuously declining. If the demand remains strong, the price of Bitcoin is expected to further challenge higher levels. However, it should be noted that once the market shows signs of overheating, such as excessive price increases in the short term or new investors blindly following the trend, the “big whales” may also change their strategies and start to take profits. At that time, the market will face a significant risk of correction.
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