Singapore-based crypto investment institution QCP Capital released an analysis pointing out that in the current geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has demonstrated strong resilience. Facing the Iran-Israel conflict, the price of Bitcoin rebounded all the way from the weekly low of $102,800 to above $107,000. Compared with the 8% decline caused by similar geopolitical events in April 2024, the decline this time has only narrowed to 3%.
The continuous increase in holdings by institutions has become a key support for the price of Bitcoin. Institutions such as Metaplanet and MicroStrategy bought at low prices, and spot ETFs have achieved net inflows of funds for seven consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, the psychological threshold of $100,000 for Bitcoin has never been effectively broken, further consolidating market confidence.
From the perspective of the macro market, despite the continuous rise in geopolitical risks, the market has remained relatively calm. The front-end implied volatility of Bitcoin is below 40, while the volatility index (VIX) hovers around 20. Both of these figures are at historically low levels. In terms of capital flow, there was an inflow of funds into US Treasuries and some Asian government bonds, indicating that the market has not yet fully entered a safe-haven mode, but cautious sentiment still prevails.
It is worth noting that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or the United States directly intervenes militarily, it may trigger a significant increase in oil prices, which in turn could lead to severe fluctuations in risky assets. However, there are also different views in the market. Some people believe that these geopolitical risks might actually be structurally beneficial to Bitcoin. At present, the trading price of Bitcoin has dropped by less than 6% from its historical high. The recent price trend seems to confirm that macroeconomic misalignment, the increasing burden of sovereign debt and the fragility of geopolitics are driving the adoption of Bitcoin. How Bitcoin will develop in the complex geopolitical environment in the future is closely watched by all market participants.
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