Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have revealed their predictions for the approval likelihood of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Litecoin. Their analysis, which focuses on regulatory trends and market conditions, offers insights into which crypto ETFs may gain approval first.
Approval Odds for Popular Crypto ETFs
In a recent post, Seyffart shared the analysts’ outlook on these prominent digital assets, assigning approval probabilities for their respective ETFs. According to the analysts, Litecoin ETFs have the highest chances of approval, with an estimated 90% likelihood. They predict a 75% approval chance for Dogecoin ETFs, a 70% chance for Solana, and a 65% chance for XRP.
The analysts’ predictions reflect the growing interest in cryptocurrency ETFs, with Litecoin positioned as a front-runner due to its classification as a non-security asset by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC is already engaging with Canary Capital, which has filed to offer a Litecoin ETF, alongside firms like Grayscale and CoinShares. This status gives Litecoin an edge in the race for approval.
Dogecoin and Solana: The Next Contenders
Dogecoin’s higher approval odds (75%) compared to Solana’s (70%) stem from the analysts’ belief that the SEC might treat Dogecoin similarly to Litecoin—viewing it as a commodity. This could significantly boost the meme coin’s prospects for an ETF approval. Additionally, Solana has gained some momentum, with the SEC acknowledging the 19b-4 filings for Solana ETFs, further improving its approval odds over Dogecoin.
Why XRP ETFs Face the Lowest Odds
XRP ETFs have the lowest likelihood of approval (65%), largely due to the ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Ripple. Seyffart and Balchunas explained that the SEC is unlikely to approve an XRP ETF until the lawsuit is resolved. This aligns with predictions by legal experts, such as Jeremy Hogan, who believes that the case will conclude before any XRP ETF approval can take place.
The uncertainty surrounding the case is exacerbated by the need for a new SEC chair, as the current SEC leadership may not prioritize the XRP issue. Legal expert Marc Fagel has suggested that the case could be settled soon after Paul Atkins is confirmed as the new SEC chair, though his confirmation process could take some time. The U.S. Senate has yet to approve Atkins, and the process of confirming administration officials typically moves slowly.
Conclusion
As the crypto ETF race heats up, the chances of approval for these digital asset-backed funds depend on a range of factors, including regulatory clarity, legal outcomes, and market conditions. Litecoin ETFs stand the best chance of approval, while Solana, Dogecoin, and XRP each face unique challenges that influence their odds. The evolving SEC stance on crypto assets and the Ripple lawsuit will play a critical role in shaping the future of these ETFs.
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