Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) supply is declining, hinting at a possible market top, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. As of May 14, LTH supply—Bitcoin held for over 155 days—peaked at 14.29 million BTC but has dipped for the second time this month.
Key Metrics Flash Warning Signs
LTH Spending Ratio: Climbed to 0.43, historically preceding local price tops.
Recent Trend: Rising LTH spending signals long-term holders are distributing coins, often a precursor to reversals.
Bearish Technical Patterns Emerge
WhaleWire analyst Jacob King identified a double top formation, a classic sign of bull market exhaustion.
King criticized the rally’s strength, attributing gains to Tether inflows and insider manipulation, not organic demand.
Institutional Buying Counters Bearish Outlook
Despite caution signals, institutional accumulation remains strong:
MicroStrategy added $1.34B BTC on May 12, holdings near 569,000 BTC.
Metaplanet of Japan bought 1,241 BTC, total holdings now 6,796 BTC.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $1.94B net inflows over the past month.
Price Movement Snapshot
Current Price: ~$105,747 (after rising from $94,000 in early May).
Short-term retracements possible if retail sentiment weakens.
However, institutions now control ~68% of supply (per Santiment), limiting sell pressure.
Near-Term Outlook
Possible Pullback: Triggered by retail capitulation.
ETF Demand Steady: About 5,000 BTC net inflows daily.
Likely scenario: price stabilization post-profit-taking, with further growth potential once selling subsides.
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