Bitcoin is eyeing the $120,000 price zone as its on – chain activity intensifies, with notable increases in exchange flows and leverage. Here is a detailed analysis:
On – chain activity and price trends: Bitcoin has been consolidating near $108,000, and $120,000 has emerged as the next major price zone of interest. It previously hit a new all – time high of $111,000 before pulling back to $107,000 and has since stabilized just above that level.
Investor behavior
Accumulation: Glassnode’s May 28 report shows that the accumulation trend score is nearing its maximum value of 1.0, suggesting that investors are aggressively adding to their positions. This is similar to the behavior seen at the $70,000 and $107,000 highs in 2024.
Profitability: The relative unrealized profit metric has reached a level historically
associated with euphoric market conditions. Only 16% of trading days see profits at this level, and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) indicates that the average coin moved on – chain has captured a 16% gain, ranking among the top 8% of all days historically.
Exchange flows: Roughly 33% of all bitcoin volume is now flowing through centralized exchanges, up from earlier in the year. The average profit on coins deposited into exchanges is $9,300, while the average loss is just $780, resulting in a 12:1 profit – to – loss ratio that mirrors prior bull cycles.
Leverage: Futures open interest has climbed from $36.8 billion to $55.6 billion (+51%) since April, and options open interest surged to an all – time high of $46.2 billion, up $25.8 billion. Spot bitcoin exchange – traded funds (ETFs) continue to draw inflows above $300 million daily, providing additional buy – side momentum.
Technical analysis: Technically, bitcoin trades well above the 111 – day moving average at $91,800, the 200 – day moving average at $94,300, and the short – term holder cost basis at $95,900, reinforcing the bullish momentum. On – chain pricing models place key resistance between $120,300 and $135,700. Historically, this range has encompassed only 17.5% of bitcoin’s trading history and often serves as the upper limit during periods of euphoria.
The market is heating up but has not yet reached exhaustion. If the momentum continues, the next test for bitcoin may occur at the $120,000 zone, provided that investor demand can absorb the rising profit – taking pressure.
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