Despite the recent market correction, the price of Bitcoin has continued to hold above the psychological threshold of $100,000. This performance highlights the resilience of investor sentiment and sends a signal that the market fundamentals are stabilizing. Analysts point out that the support strength at this key level reflects the enhanced consensus among institutional and retail investors on the long-term value of cryptocurrencies.
Resilience performance in price fluctuations
Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin dropped from $112,000 to $101,000, a decline of nearly 10%. However, after touching the $100,000 mark, it quickly gained buying support and rebounded 5% to $106,000 within three days. On-chain data shows that the cumulative trading volume around $100,000 has exceeded $2.3 billion, forming a dense support range.
This is not merely a technical support, but rather a reconfirmation of the narrative of digital gold by the market. Analysts from cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital said that since 2025, the scale of institutions’ increase in holdings of Bitcoin has reached 147,000, accounting for 0.7% of the circulating volume during the same period. These long-term funds constitute a price “safety cushion”.
Indicators of capital flow and market sentiment
Long-term holders’ holdings remain stable: Glassnode data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin supply held for more than one year has reached 63.2%, the highest since May 2022. This part of the “firm holders” only reduced their holdings by 0.3% during the pullback, indicating a strong sentiment of holding back sales.
The leverage ratio in the derivatives market is healthy: The open interest of Bitcoin futures dropped by 18% during the pullback to $12.7 billion. The orderly exit of leveraged funds has reduced the risk of waterfall liquidation. Meanwhile, the proportion of highly leveraged positions above 25 times decreased from 7.6% to 3.1%.
Sentiment indicators have bottomed out and rebounded: The crypto market fear and greed index has risen from 46 (fear zone) last week to 55 (neutral zone). Retail investors have net subscribed to $320 million through Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), indicating that retail funds are making bargains.
Institutional behavior resonates with the macroeconomy
This price persistence coincides with the superimposition of multiple macro favorable factors:
Expectations of a policy shift by the Bank of Japan: The market is betting that the Bank of Japan will postpone quantitative tightening (QT), and the expectation of the yen’s depreciation has pushed the Bitcoin premium rate on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to 3.2%, reaching a new high since November 2024.
Continuous inflow of ETF funds: Compliant Bitcoin ETFs in North America recorded a net inflow of 780 million US dollars last week. Among them, the holdings of ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) increased by 12,000, and the proportion of institutional subscription reached 68%.
Enterprise financial allocation acceleration: Following MicroStrategy, the US-listed company Marathon Digital announced that it would use 30% of its quarterly profits to purchase Bitcoin. Such enterprise Treasury allocation behaviors have created a demonstration effect.
Technical analysis and future market outlook
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has formed a triple support structure at the $100,000 mark:
Fibonacci retracement level: This price level corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level of the increase from the March low point to the May high point in 2025.
The combination of moving averages: The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) formed a golden cross around $102,000.
On-chain cost basis: The latest on-chain data shows that the average cost for Bitcoin holders is approximately $98,000, and there are a large number of bargain hunters below $100,000.
The strategy report of cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute Trading indicates that if the price can stabilize above $105,000, the next target level will point to the previous high of $128,000. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the hawkish signals that may be released at the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate meeting, which could trigger short-term liquidity fluctuations.
The positioning of Bitcoin in Market Differentiation
It is worth noting that during the same period, mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum dropped by 15%, while the relatively strong performance of Bitcoin highlights its attribute as a “safe haven for digital assets”. Traditional financial institutions’ views on it have also gradually changed – jpmorgan Chase’s latest report has raised the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold to 0.61, believing that it can be used as an inflation-resistant asset allocation in investment portfolios.
As the 2025 Bitcoin halving cycle approaches, the miner’s computing power has continued to grow to a record high of 480 EH/s, and the enhanced network security has further consolidated investor confidence. Behind this $100,000 defense battle lies not only a recalibration of the market’s narrative on cryptocurrencies but also a sign of the deepening role of digital assets in the traditional financial system.
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